Thanks guys, I appreciate this thoughtful dialogue so much. For so many like yourselves who worked on Covid daily from the beginning, this bizarro world rewriting of history is so maddening… and ultimately dangerous, as you suggest.
This is the best and most informative corrective to the Macedo and Lee book that I have seen. Thank you for conducting this very interesting interview.
A (short) book that provides an evidence and science-driven account of what happened in early 2020 and how lessons learned could still be used to inform efforts to prevent/respond to threats to come.
Serious and interesting account of your work on Covid. Thank you.
However, I am loosing your logic when you write about that book The War On Science. Have you read essays on the subject of evolutional biology. There are several in the book.
You are the ones who undermined public health. Nothing you did matches any institutional knowledge at the time or ever. The case definition you say is serious was so flawed that they removed symptoms from it (in 2023). The tests never had a meaningful causal connection to any organism or syndrome. The models relied on plainly false assumptions. You are in a deep hole of scientific misconduct. Recommend stop digging.
I think it's important to leave this comment up. I don't expect to convince you, but I appreciate that you're here. As described in the dialogue, I was involved in Covid response since January 2020 based out of Atlanta where I was faculty at Georgia Tech. In collaboration with epidemiologists, scientists, engineers + dozens of students and staff members we analyzed outbreak data, designed risk models, and supported institutions facing an unprecedented threat. I am not sure what 'institutional knowledge' you are referring to, but feel free to read 'Asymptomatic' which I started to write in early 2022 as a means to assess what made Covid so hard to stop and what lessons we could learn (and pass on to institutions) to confront future epidemic threats. 5 years is a long time, memories can fade, but the impacts are evident on many scales: Covid was not the flu.
A friend of mine was a trucker. He told me a story. An elderly couple were driving and their vehicle broke down. The husband had to change a tire. A trucker was driving on the same highway. The trucker had not checked the brakes on his truck, although all truckers are required to check their brakes before getting in the road. The trucker was heading toward the couple's car but could not stop, his brakes had not been checked and did not work. The trucker crashed into the couple and the husband was killed. The trucker went to jail for manslaughter.
The man who told me that story was manslaughtered by doctors who never checked the brakes.
The case definition is invalid. You did not check the brakes.
"Jerry Coyne, a well-known evolutionary biologist, and someone who I used to admire deeply"
He sort of lost me when he started to complain about the price of toothpaste, and lost me completely when he put me on permanent moderation - meaning my comments would appear after the conversation was over - for saying something he didn't like, such as that it was unfair of him to respond harshly to a comment and then immediately banning the commenter so that they did not get a right of reply.
Since then, he has increasingly become an embarrassment to those who used to follow him.
"in March of 2020 when Covid-19 was devastating northern Italy and hospitals were becoming completely overwhelmed in New York city. The case fatality rate looked like it would be at least 1%, maybe double that"
In March, the most reliable estimates of the IFR was that it was likely to be between 0.5% and 1.0%. In the end it turned out to be 0.68%.
"we were looking at between 1 and 2 million American deaths"
Well, using the most reliable range of IFR, this computes to 1.8 to 3.3 million (average: 2.5 million)
"likely a million or more lives were saved because of reduced infection rates in 2020 and the subsequently availability of vaccines in 2021."
Predicted number: 2.5 million.
Actual number: 1.2 million.
Therefore, number saved: 1.3 million.
So that looks about right. However, I have seen figures as high as 3.2 million lives saved.
In Australia where I live, we achieved zero infection rates most of the country throughout 2020 and started reducing restrictions when 80% of the adult population was vaccinated and ceased completely when 95% of the adult population was vaccinated. As a result, we had 1/3 to 1/4 of the COVID-19 mortality rate of the US. Of course, we do not have strong anti-vaccine and libertarian groups here and both major parties and the most popular minor party all support vaccination and, for the large part, worked together during the pandemic.
"the premise of using testing to slow spread was that asymptomatic infections were common,'
Yes, in Australia, infection rates were low enough for most of the first year in most parts of the country that we were able to test primary AND secondary contacts to return and keep the country to zero infections. This requires a high level of cooperation between public health experts, state and federal governments, and the population.
"At some point it became clear that the virus was small enough to get through the pores in regular masks"
That was always clear. What was not clear was that a significant percentage of the droplets of mucous containing the virus were small enough to get through the pores of the masks.
I see you mentioned this later.
"Covid vaccines – including mRNA vaccines - were evaluated based on their ability to reduce symptomatic disease. The image below makes the point clear"
Indeed. The plateau occurs about 2 weeks after the vaccination, and it applies also to the severity of the infection if you do get infected. I got my first infection 2 weeks after my booster (2 primary doses and 1 booster). I was bedridden for three days and recovered in one to two weeks. Without the vaccine, I may have not survived.
"I was critical of the longevity of the Australian response"
Well, go ahead, but 1/3 to 1/4 the mortality rate is not bad. I would be far more critical of the "nonevity" of the American response.
"In the end I don’t think there was a correct or best response, we all just muddled through as best we could."
Well some didn't just muddle through and, although there is no best response, some responses were better than others, and by a long shot. What's even worse is that the US will fail even more with the next pandemic. And it's not because the scientists and public health experts failed but because they were thwarted at every turn by politically motivated anti-vaccine activists not only wildly exaggerating every error and mistake, but also blatantly lying about them.
But, you know, while the scientists and public experts - who saved at least a million lives! - are castigating themselves and striving to do better next time, the anti-vaccine activists - who contributed to the death of about 250,000 unvaccinated Americans and made millions from their social media activities - are busily re-writing the history of their pandemic failures and preparing for an even more effective campaign next time, starting from day one.
Thanks guys, I appreciate this thoughtful dialogue so much. For so many like yourselves who worked on Covid daily from the beginning, this bizarro world rewriting of history is so maddening… and ultimately dangerous, as you suggest.
This is the best and most informative corrective to the Macedo and Lee book that I have seen. Thank you for conducting this very interesting interview.
Thank you - truly. But wait, there’s more!
A (short) book that provides an evidence and science-driven account of what happened in early 2020 and how lessons learned could still be used to inform efforts to prevent/respond to threats to come.
https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/53730/asymptomatic
Serious and interesting account of your work on Covid. Thank you.
However, I am loosing your logic when you write about that book The War On Science. Have you read essays on the subject of evolutional biology. There are several in the book.
I am curious to read your assessment.
You are the ones who undermined public health. Nothing you did matches any institutional knowledge at the time or ever. The case definition you say is serious was so flawed that they removed symptoms from it (in 2023). The tests never had a meaningful causal connection to any organism or syndrome. The models relied on plainly false assumptions. You are in a deep hole of scientific misconduct. Recommend stop digging.
I think it's important to leave this comment up. I don't expect to convince you, but I appreciate that you're here. As described in the dialogue, I was involved in Covid response since January 2020 based out of Atlanta where I was faculty at Georgia Tech. In collaboration with epidemiologists, scientists, engineers + dozens of students and staff members we analyzed outbreak data, designed risk models, and supported institutions facing an unprecedented threat. I am not sure what 'institutional knowledge' you are referring to, but feel free to read 'Asymptomatic' which I started to write in early 2022 as a means to assess what made Covid so hard to stop and what lessons we could learn (and pass on to institutions) to confront future epidemic threats. 5 years is a long time, memories can fade, but the impacts are evident on many scales: Covid was not the flu.
NY Times, April 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-funeral-home-morgue-bodies.html
Texas Tribune, July 2020
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/10/texas-coronavirus-deaths-morgues-capacity/
Asymptomatic:
https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/53730/asymptomatic
Thanks, I'll try to understand your position better and respond nonconfrontationally, have a good day.
A friend of mine was a trucker. He told me a story. An elderly couple were driving and their vehicle broke down. The husband had to change a tire. A trucker was driving on the same highway. The trucker had not checked the brakes on his truck, although all truckers are required to check their brakes before getting in the road. The trucker was heading toward the couple's car but could not stop, his brakes had not been checked and did not work. The trucker crashed into the couple and the husband was killed. The trucker went to jail for manslaughter.
The man who told me that story was manslaughtered by doctors who never checked the brakes.
The case definition is invalid. You did not check the brakes.
"Jerry Coyne, a well-known evolutionary biologist, and someone who I used to admire deeply"
He sort of lost me when he started to complain about the price of toothpaste, and lost me completely when he put me on permanent moderation - meaning my comments would appear after the conversation was over - for saying something he didn't like, such as that it was unfair of him to respond harshly to a comment and then immediately banning the commenter so that they did not get a right of reply.
Since then, he has increasingly become an embarrassment to those who used to follow him.
"in March of 2020 when Covid-19 was devastating northern Italy and hospitals were becoming completely overwhelmed in New York city. The case fatality rate looked like it would be at least 1%, maybe double that"
In March, the most reliable estimates of the IFR was that it was likely to be between 0.5% and 1.0%. In the end it turned out to be 0.68%.
"we were looking at between 1 and 2 million American deaths"
Well, using the most reliable range of IFR, this computes to 1.8 to 3.3 million (average: 2.5 million)
"likely a million or more lives were saved because of reduced infection rates in 2020 and the subsequently availability of vaccines in 2021."
Predicted number: 2.5 million.
Actual number: 1.2 million.
Therefore, number saved: 1.3 million.
So that looks about right. However, I have seen figures as high as 3.2 million lives saved.
In Australia where I live, we achieved zero infection rates most of the country throughout 2020 and started reducing restrictions when 80% of the adult population was vaccinated and ceased completely when 95% of the adult population was vaccinated. As a result, we had 1/3 to 1/4 of the COVID-19 mortality rate of the US. Of course, we do not have strong anti-vaccine and libertarian groups here and both major parties and the most popular minor party all support vaccination and, for the large part, worked together during the pandemic.
"the premise of using testing to slow spread was that asymptomatic infections were common,'
Yes, in Australia, infection rates were low enough for most of the first year in most parts of the country that we were able to test primary AND secondary contacts to return and keep the country to zero infections. This requires a high level of cooperation between public health experts, state and federal governments, and the population.
"At some point it became clear that the virus was small enough to get through the pores in regular masks"
That was always clear. What was not clear was that a significant percentage of the droplets of mucous containing the virus were small enough to get through the pores of the masks.
I see you mentioned this later.
"Covid vaccines – including mRNA vaccines - were evaluated based on their ability to reduce symptomatic disease. The image below makes the point clear"
Indeed. The plateau occurs about 2 weeks after the vaccination, and it applies also to the severity of the infection if you do get infected. I got my first infection 2 weeks after my booster (2 primary doses and 1 booster). I was bedridden for three days and recovered in one to two weeks. Without the vaccine, I may have not survived.
"I was critical of the longevity of the Australian response"
Well, go ahead, but 1/3 to 1/4 the mortality rate is not bad. I would be far more critical of the "nonevity" of the American response.
"In the end I don’t think there was a correct or best response, we all just muddled through as best we could."
Well some didn't just muddle through and, although there is no best response, some responses were better than others, and by a long shot. What's even worse is that the US will fail even more with the next pandemic. And it's not because the scientists and public health experts failed but because they were thwarted at every turn by politically motivated anti-vaccine activists not only wildly exaggerating every error and mistake, but also blatantly lying about them.
But, you know, while the scientists and public experts - who saved at least a million lives! - are castigating themselves and striving to do better next time, the anti-vaccine activists - who contributed to the death of about 250,000 unvaccinated Americans and made millions from their social media activities - are busily re-writing the history of their pandemic failures and preparing for an even more effective campaign next time, starting from day one.